Simulating the future urban growth in Xiongan New Area: a upcoming big city in China

China made the announcement to create the Xiongan New Area in Hebei in April 1, 2017. Thus a new megacity about 110km southwest of Beijing will emerge. Xiongan New Area is of great practical significance and historical significance for transferring Beijing’s non-capital function. Simulating the urban dynamics in Xiongan New Area can help planners to decide where to build the new urban and further manage the future urban growth. However, only a little researches focus on the future urban development in Xiongan New Area. In addition, previous models are unable to simulate the urban dynamics in Xiongan New Area. Because there are no original high density urban for these models to learn the transition rules. In this study, we proposed a C-FLUS model to solve such problems. This framework was implemented by coupling a fuzzy C-mean algorithm and a modified Cellular automata (CA). An elaborately designed random planted seeds mechanism based on local maximums is addressed in the CA model to better simulate the occurrence of the new urban. Through an analysis of the current driving forces, the C-FLUS can detect the potential start zone and simulate the urban development under different scenarios in Xiongan New Area. Our study shows that the new urban is most likely to occur in northwest of Xiongxian, and it will rapidly extend to Rongcheng and Anxin until almost cover the northern part of Xiongan New Area. Moreover, the method can help planners to evaluate the impact of urban expansion in Xiongan New Area.